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Angry the Clown

Talkin' about next gen (possibilities, expectations and hopes for PS5 & Xbox 2)

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The next gen systems are unlikely to be able to deliver true 4k 100% of the time (it's not something even the uber nerds of Digital Foundry expect). 8k three years after their launch seems like fantasy.

 

If the X becomes the new base, it doesn't really fall into Spencer's curious comment at the close of the E3 conference that engineers were hard at work on the next generation "consoles" though. The base model could feasibly be an X+ of sorts, I suppose, a slight revision/enhancement of the current hardware that could feasibly come in at a $350/399 launch price, but the hint doesn't suggest the X as we know it would be likely to stay in rotation. From a psychological point of view, I don't think consumers will be driven to want something that would be seen as old come late 2020 either, not in the face of systems promising the true generational leap anyway. 

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Not sounding encouraging for VR being part of the Xbox brand's future. From a Gamesindustry.biz interview with Xbox's chief marketing officer:

 

Quote

One thing Microsoft isn't working on right now--at least as it pertains to Xbox--is virtual reality/mixed reality.

 

"We don't have any plans specific to Xbox consoles in virtual reality or mixed reality," Nichols said. "Our perspective on it has been and continues to be that the PC is probably the best platform for more immersive VR and MR. As an open platform, it just allows faster, more rapid iteration. There are plenty of companies investing in it in the hardware side and the content side, or some combination therein. Obviously on phones, augmented reality is a good scenario as well that's going to grow. But as it relates to Xbox, no. Our focus is primarily on experiences you would play on your TV, and ultimately we'd like to make those experiences more broadly."

 

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2018-06-13-xboxs-evolving-first-party-strategy

 

Hardly a surprise following recent data that VR is failing to have a significant impact on the market. That is indeed something that might be worth revisiting come mid-gen of the next system as a more powerful machine could be designed to give up a load of its resources to powering high-end VR for the living room.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Angry the Clown said:

The next gen systems are unlikely to be able to deliver true 4k 100% of the time (it's not something even the uber nerds of Digital Foundry expect). 8k three years after their launch seems like fantasy.

 

If the X becomes the new base, it doesn't really fall into Spencer's curious comment at the close of the E3 conference that engineers were hard at work on the next generation "consoles" though. The base model could feasibly be an X+ of sorts, I suppose, a slight revision/enhancement of the current hardware that could feasibly come in at a $350/399 launch price, but the hint doesn't suggest the X as we know it would be likely to stay in rotation. From a psychological point of view, I don't think consumers will be driven to want something that would be seen as old come late 2020 either, not in the face of systems promising the true generational leap anyway. 

 

Yeah my hope is if there will be 2 new tiers, that they both share similar CPU characteristics so the simulation part of the games can be mostly on par and that they differentiate with GPU capability for eye candy much like xbox one S/X today.

 

If they make the Xbox one X the new base then devs will just limit their simulation to the lowest common denominator impeding progress IMHO.

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On 6/22/2018 at 9:49 AM, AlbertA said:

If they make the Xbox one X the new base then devs will just limit their simulation to the lowest common denominator impeding progress IMHO. 

 

But today, that means targeting the base XB1/PS4, and not the X/Pro.  If you were given free rein to target X as your starting point, with XB2 as the new high end, then presumably you'd have a much higher bar.  Yeah, it's not a quantum leap forward, but it's an iteration that keeps compatibility, not only with software, but with accessories too.  I'll also go out on a limb and say that all the XB1 controllers will work with Scarlet as well.  There may very well be a new "hook" for them, but the goodwill of being able to use that expensive elite controller with the new machine is huge.  Maybe the X version of a game becomes the new 1080p/30, and the Scarlet version is 1080/60 or 4k/30 with better LOD etc? 

 

Really, you have to think about what a generation means.  In the past, it was a major architectural change, but this time you're looking at x64 today, and probably x64 tomorrow.  No more cells, emotion engines, powerPC chips-good old multi-core x64, just like on the PC.  You also have fundamental system changes, like online being a given, and targeting HD instead of 480i, media format changes (cartridge to CD to DVD), and fundamental input mechanism changes.  Can anyone think of anything that might fundamentally change between now and 2020 that would necessetate something that's not just iterative on what we have?  Controllers for MS/Sony have only changed marginally this time around, and they've even taken away some of the new tech that made the new controllers special (remember the IR stuff with Kinect, or whatever that light bar was supposed to do?).  Perhaps some new motion control tech for positional tracking with VR, but I really doubt that the number of and configuration of the buttons on a gamepad is going to change on either side of the fence. 

 

I guess the question I struggle with is, other than "slightly more power", what would a new generation of hardware mean? 

 

As an aside, is this the revision where they have a SKU with no optical drive?  Maybe an external, USBc optical drive as an accessory?  Makes things a bit of a production nightmare to anticipate demand, so not sure if the cost savings is worth it, but I'm sure someone has done the math on it. 

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The big, obvious thing that springs to mind is that when you support the Base One, you make your entire game work in 8GB including GPU memory, deliver it on a 50GB disc and operate on the principle that the owner may well have a 500GB rotating magnetic hard drive that you probably shouldn’t abuse too much; I can’t be the only one who’s passed on Quantum Break for PC not because the financial price tag is too expensive, but the hard drive demand is too high. 

 

Though right now, the semiconductor market is so struggling with demand from the speculators and block chain bandwagon that even a step to £16GB is pricey, and SSD or even a multi-terabyte regular drive as standard is right out. 

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It wasn't clear what his conclusion or speculation was though.... 

 

I thought for a moment he was going with the new base with Ryzen (because at 7nm it takes the same area as the current Jaguar base set in the X/S) and a premium GPU line but then he goes on about price and says a premium would be too expensive? Maybe I misunderstood.

 

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I think he's wise enough not to form any kind of conclusion really. The only thing he seems quite firm on is his feeling that a next gen leap is not going to come cheap for the consumer. I also suspect he has a few connections here and there (MS seemed to actively reach out to Digital Foundry as the X's release was getting closer) so can only say so much.

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I don’t doubt that they could launch multiple new boxes, I don’t really see the benefit to this if it’s just one is slightly more powerful than the other. They could have multiple SKUs for hard drive size, a box without an optical drive, or something like that which they did with the 360. 

 

What I think could actually be an interesting ideas could be the idea floated here earlier of a cheaper streaming box. There were rumours of a 360 box like that awhile ago that never came to be, but maybe there is still something to it. 

 

I think it it could be cool if they released a “streaming box” for $100-$150 that could:

 

A) Stream all Xbox games from another home Xbox system for use on a second screen. It could also possibly stream PC games similar to Steamlink. 

 

B)Change Gamepass to a download and streaming service. This box could stream all or most gamepass games (including new MS release games). 

 

C) The box has a small HD/storage on it so you could download 360 and OG Xbox games you purchase digitally without having to stream. If feasible, they could maybe make it powerful enough to play XBOne games at the level of an S and maybe newer Indie games could make games work on it if they chose. 

 

D) Could also be used as media player for Netflix, YouTube Etc like a Roku or AppleTV. 

 

This would fit in with Spencer’s vision of not caring where you play games as long as you’re playing, and would allow people to play Xbox games without having to shell out $400-$500. The hardcore could and would still buy the big system so they can buy games to own, get the best possible experience, and have access to all games and services on day one without having to wait for gamepass to support it. 

 

This is to me, would be a positive shift towards the all digital future we all know is probably happening, without forcing it on anyone.

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BTW, I hadn’t watched the Digital Foundry video yet, where Richard also talks about the possibility of a streaming box. 

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A mod named Matt over on ResetEra who supposedly works or worked somehow related to the industry (I think third party) has said the plan for PS5 has been 2019 for a long time.

 

That always made sense to me if they do 3 year tick-tock cycles (console, console "Pro").

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If true, that'd surely pave way to an E3 reveal ahead of a Holiday release I'd have thought. Part of me thinks there are a few too many obstacles to pull it off in 2019. Richard from DF feels that all the internal components are absolutely out there to pull it off, but I do wonder if its achievable at the right price for either Sony/MS and the consumer... but then from the PlayStation's perspective Last of Us 2 and Death Stranding still feel like generation closers to me, with potential to even be cross-gen. 

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It’s funny. 2019 still feels too early for another round of consoles for me. For regular video games, I just don’t feel like I’m going to notice enough of a difference to care for awhile. I already watch too many side by side comparison videos wondering “what’s the difference?” or even thinking the lesser quality one looks better. 

 

However, in the last few months, my priorities have certainly changed a bit. I’ve been consumed with playing games on PSVR and only PSVR. The prospect of a powerful new PS System, and what that could mean in terms of a new PSVR headset, assuming Sony is interested, at some point in the future has me more than a little anxious. 

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I feel similarly. I don't rush to buy new games. I haven't really for years, with a few exceptions, and even games I am eager to play like God of War and Spider-man I have yet to purchase, and am unlikely to buy Red Dead 2 at launch either. With that in mind, the PS5 may not be a console I feel compelled to buy at launch. Interestingly the only Playstations I did buy at launch were the original and the PS4 as I didn't get a PS2 until GTA3 came out, and I waited about a year until getting a PS3, so it wouldn't be unprecedented for me to wait a while again. The mid-gen refreshes also seem to make this generation feel more youthful than it actually is, at least to me. 

 

The Switch keeps winning my heart these days, and I am keen to expand my gaming library there when finances allow as the list of games I want for the system is huge. I'd like to at least get Spider-man on PS4 before the year is out though, and hands on impressions are certainly increasing my interest in Red Dead 2. Of the three, God of War is probably the one I'd leave until next year.

 

Now if PS5 did launch next year and Last of US 2 and Death Stranding were indeed cross gen titles, then I might find it harder to resist. Also if the 5 adds performance enhancements to PS4 games I have yet to work through then it could feasibly be a sound investment. Either way, I'm fascinated to see what Cerney's been cooking up, and whether it launches next year or not I suspect we'll certainly have an early event similar to PS4 discussing the direction they plan to go. 

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One thing to keep in mind is that it usually takes a year or two before the new consoles start to see a steady stream of must-play releases. When the current gen started in late 2013, I bought a PS4 at launch and an Xbox One a year later, but spent the next year or so playing the majority of my games on PS3. It was great! It gave me a chance to catch up on some titles I missed.

 

It wasn’t until 2015 when I started to spend more time with my PS4 and my Xbox One. By then we started to see a more steady stream of releases that weren’t just remastered versions of previous-gen titles.

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I keep thinking Sony would mimic their February reveal > November launch pattern for the PS5, and projecting that onto either 2019 or 2020, but I saw this posted elsewhere and this almost makes the most sense to me:

 

-Don't initially reveal in Feb, but at E3 2019

-All out hands on at PSX 2019

-Launch Spring of 2020

 

This is all advantageous based on the assumption the next Xbox would be Fall 2020. Sony would beat them to market, but not by "too much" to make it a disadvantage. 2020 E3 would be interesting. Missing holiday 2019 probably wouldn't make much difference as early adopters will buy them anyway. Then you are supply stacked for holiday 2020.

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1 hour ago, Angry the Clown said:

It’s interesting that there’s no PSX this year. 

 

I don't know if there's much to read from it other than Sony taking stock. Layden was pretty straightforward in saying that they didn't have the content available to make for a worthwhile show. I think that speaks more to the number of first party titles in the cooker that aren't ready for reveal and the fact that Sony first party has been pretty insane the past year and a half on the release schedule front. 2019 will be ALL about The Last of Us 2 as well.

 

I don't buy a 2019 release for PS5. I may be wrong but 2020 is still what I see as the target release.

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19 minutes ago, Romier S said:

 

I don't know if there's much to read from it other than Sony taking stock. Layden was pretty straightforward in saying that they didn't have the content available to make for a worthwhile show. I think that speaks more to the number of first party titles in the cooker that aren't ready for reveal and the fact that Sony first party has been pretty insane the past year and a half on the release schedule front. 2019 will be ALL about The Last of Us 2 as well.

 

I think the logic of reading into it is that the lack of content reveals a transitional period, where showing new things at this point may involve next-gen console talk. Like they are gearing up for next year. 

 

If they do launch in 2019, they should set up The Last of Us Part 2 as a cross-gen title to release day and date with PS5.

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17 minutes ago, Starhawk said:

 

I think the logic of reading into it is that the lack of content reveals a transitional period, where showing new things at this point may involve next-gen console talk. Like they are gearing up for next year. 

 

If they do launch in 2019, they should set up The Last of Us Part 2 as a cross-gen title to release day and date with PS5.

 

I get the logic. I think its reading too much into the lack of PSX personally which was my point.

 

The view that these announced games are going to be cross gen or have the propensity to be cross gen is pure and utter conjecture with no basis in reality from any reporting other than some supposedly "in the know" person saying Sony is targeting 2019. So then we have to make sense of the release schedule for current titles to "fit" the PS5 launch. I won't be holding my breath on that one.

 

Death Stranding and The Last of Us II will firmly release as PS4 exclusive titles with proper Pro support. Of that, I am sure. I have a greater belief that Sony is building towards some form of backwards compatibility on the PS5 that would enhance performance of those games to combat Microsofts effectiveness in that arena over cross gen releases. That's my own view and I'm always willing to eat crow if I'm wrong but nothing we've seen from any of the Playstation platforms in the last 20 years would give me any indication that they are planning some kind of cross gen release for two of their biggest PS4 releases in the next year.

 

I think Sony learned a lesson about how they transitioned from the PS3 and that's being applied now. They had a lengthy slate of games at the end of the PS3's life span and it took them 2 years to really spin up the development machine on the PS4. I think you're right that Sony World Wide Studios is in a transition period. I think E3 2019 will likely be very quiet on the software front as Sony first party look to put together a launch line-up and beyond on the PS5.  I also think the primary game focus will be on the last hurrah of titles on the PS4 which continues its March to dethrone the PS2 as Sony's most successful console.

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Thing to consider: we’ve not yet seen how big a difference the new ratracing and antialiasing hardware on the Nvidia RTX cards make. I can’t imagine anyone wants to lock down their GPU for another half-decade without knowing whether it’s something you want to devote half your die to, nor have a GPU that can’t churn 4k at 60fps while looking better than the One X does at chequerboarded 30fps. 

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The obscene installation size of Red Dead Redemption 2 has me wondering... Does it signal the inevitablity of the next gen systems adopting UHD Blu-ray capacities? The format expands disc sizes to 66GB (dual layer) and 100GB (triple layer) discs, and of course has backwards compatibility for 25GB and 50GB Blu-rays. How would it affect the digital download scene if installs like RDR2 become more commonplace?

 

Do we know what the top five or ten largest game downloads and installs are this generation?

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Well the One S and X can both read UHDs, and I can’t see them going backwards. At which point Sony either force people into download-only or make life hell for cross-platform devs. 

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