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Quick update on my family’s situation. Our youngest boy continues to have a mild fever in the low 99s. He seemed like he was on the upswing late-Thursday and all day Friday. His temp was normal the en

Just a quick update — the test for our older boy came back negative. Of course that just means that he didn’t have it on Friday when he got tested. Considering how much exposure he’s had to his little

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5 hours ago, rustyjaw said:

Ran across this video on YT this evening. I found it very helpful in grasping some of the dynamics and complexities involved in disease transmission and prevention. Even if the models are way over simplified, I think they offer valuable insights. 
 

 

Uh, this is fucking awesome.

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6 hours ago, rustyjaw said:

Ran across this video on YT this evening. I found it very helpful in grasping some of the dynamics and complexities involved in disease transmission and prevention. Even if the models are way over simplified, I think they offer valuable insights. 
 

 


yeah I’ve subscribed for about a year to 3blue1brown - he has the best visualizations for math concepts - checkout his Fourier one or quarternions or linear algebra, etc.

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14 hours ago, JoeyN said:

@ChrisBardon not only is diamond shut down, they are not sending payments to publishers at all. The same people own one of the board game distributors and are doing the same thing with that also. 

 

That really sucks.  So basically, nobody in the industry are getting paid...  I'd like to think that anyone doing work for a major publisher is still getting paid-Marvel and DC should be able to afford it (given Disney and Warner), and maybe Image?  Something tells me that no matter what, this is going to mean the Diamond monopoly goes away...  One of the MANY things that are likely to change once we come out of this.

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This is sad, but it's also a very detailed account, which is why I'm sharing. Just very interesting to hear her account of her husband passing from this. Just crazy, so sudden, and I feel so bad for her and the family, what they have gone though. Could literally happen to any family at any time. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/04/02/30-year-old-teacher-dies-coronavirus-luderer-camerota-newday-vpx.cnn

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That’s ludicrous. If public numbers for deaths had been posted as the actual 35-42k instead of the sub 4K they said you wouldn’t have needed anyone to tell you how bad it was. It would have been obvious. 
 

And shutting flights from China, among other places, in January is hardly doing nothing. But ok. 

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There's obviously some level of conversation that's going to happen here that's going to surround the response. The general rules on political discussions are well known but I'm ok with providing some leeway given the discourse and that there is a civilized conversation to be had. Especially if things start getting a bit political which is difficult to avoid with this topic.

 

Just keep in mind that the leeway has limits, gents. Thanks.

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That's pretty eye opening.  Now, the question is, do things rebound almost as fast as they dropped?  Not sure about the US, but up here, I know that there are government wage subsidies in place to try to keep people employed, but also cases where people needed to be laid off in order to be able to collect unemployment benefits, which have seen record numbers of applications as expected.  Assuming this shutdown period lasts in its current state until September, then is it too optimistic to think that half of those who were laid off might be re-hired by October (or perhaps the end of the year)?  Some industries will take way longer to recover (if ever), but maybe some will be able to bounce back?  I really have no idea....

 

For now, just focusing on staying put, staying employed, and staying busy...

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13 minutes ago, ChrisBardon said:

That's pretty eye opening.  Now, the question is, do things rebound almost as fast as they dropped?  Not sure about the US, but up here, I know that there are government wage subsidies in place to try to keep people employed, but also cases where people needed to be laid off in order to be able to collect unemployment benefits, which have seen record numbers of applications as expected.  Assuming this shutdown period lasts in its current state until September, then is it too optimistic to think that half of those who were laid off might be re-hired by October (or perhaps the end of the year)?  Some industries will take way longer to recover (if ever), but maybe some will be able to bounce back?  I really have no idea....

 

For now, just focusing on staying put, staying employed, and staying busy...


I think the problem that we’re going to have is that until there is a vaccine, we’re going to see this thing surge on and off. There’s good data to suggest that the spread will slow during the warmer months but what happens in winter? Some suggestions have been made that we need to repeat this lockdown when that happens and I don’t know a business can function in that type of environment without a serious change to standard operating procedures. My hope is that employers are planning not for a return to norm but the possibility for continued disruption until we reach the end of this. That will invariably impact any recovery we see.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Romier S said:

I think the problem that we’re going to have is that until there is a vaccine, we’re going to see this thing surge on and off. 

 

The vaccine is definitely the biggest solution. It could still be mitigated somewhat in the meantime with distancing, masks and good social practices but ONLY IF we also have universal testing available that is fast, ubiquitous and cheap. Imagine if you could get up every morning and test yourself easily and have a result in ten minutes. If you somehow test positive, if we weren't troglodytes and had more paid medical leave, maybe you verify it with your employer and another test and then self-quarantine for 14 days and still get paid. That's just one example, but it would multiply on itself where you'd have much fewer people unknowingly walking around with it until the vaccine is also universally available for cheap.

 

1 hour ago, Romier S said:

There’s good data to suggest that the spread will slow during the warmer months but what happens in winter?

 

Everything I've seen says there is no reason we can expect it to slow much in the warmer months, there are plenty of countries in warmer climates or that have been in summer where they are seeing big spreads.

 

1 hour ago, Romier S said:

My hope is that employers are planning not for a return to norm but the possibility for continued disruption until we reach the end of this. That will invariably impact any recovery we see.

 

And of course...not just employers, but governments. If they unleash the floodgates too early...

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As soon as the number of cases starts to decline, we'll see calls for us to get back to work and return to 'normal.' Such a rush will be catastrophic. We'll see a resurgence of cases that eclipses the first wave. There's no going back to normal, even after we have a vaccine. Here's an opportunity to assess how we've been living, and this pandemic is a jolt showing that way has been unsustainable.

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33 minutes ago, secretvampire said:

 

The vaccine is definitely the biggest solution. It could still be mitigated somewhat in the meantime with distancing, masks and good social practices but ONLY IF we also have universal testing available that is fast, ubiquitous and cheap. Imagine if you could get up every morning and test yourself easily and have a result in ten minutes. If you somehow test positive, if we weren't troglodytes and had more paid medical leave, maybe you verify it with your employer and another test and then self-quarantine for 14 days and still get paid. That's just one example, but it would multiply on itself where you'd have much fewer people unknowingly walking around with it until the vaccine is also universally available for cheap.

 

 

Everything I've seen says there is no reason we can expect it to slow much in the warmer months, there are plenty of countries in warmer climates or that have been in summer where they are seeing big spreads.

 

 

And of course...not just employers, but governments. If they unleash the floodgates too early...


I read a new study yesterday that noted the disease is left infectious in warmer climates. It isn’t going to dissipate but could help reduce numbers. I’ll see if I can find a link and post it.

 

EDIT: It's actually a couple of weeks old and there's still plenty of peer reviewing to do before anything can be claimed with any certainty but there's some hope...

 

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread-could-slow-with-warmer-weather/

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Some more good news:

 

F.D.A. Approves First Coronavirus Antibody Test in U.S.

 

Apoorva Mandavilli, reporting for the New York Times:

 

Quote

 

Currently available tests are designed to find fragments of viral genes indicating an ongoing infection. Doctors swab the nose and throat, and amplify any genetic material from the virus found there.

 

The new test, by contrast, looks for protective antibodies in a finger prick of blood. It tells doctors whether a patient has ever been exposed to the virus and now may have some immunity.

 

That is important for several reasons. People with immunity might be able to venture safely from their homes and help shore up the work force. It may be particularly important for doctors and nurses to know whether they have antibodies.

 

Antibody testing eventually should give scientists a better sense of how widespread the infection is in the population — and help researchers calculate more precisely the death rate.

 


An important step to be sure.

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6 hours ago, PackFan said:

My wife is an ER doc....  😕

 

Mine too! Scary stuff, hopefully your wife's hospital has a decent amount of supplies, they are trying to make Docs reuse masks until they are "soiled" at my wife's hospital. Yeah, that seems reasonable and completely logical...... morons.

 

:fauci-facepalm:

 

 

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