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5 minutes ago, AlbertA said:

That's just how exponential growth and decay work.

 

Funny, this statement is the least descriptive and most ambiguous, and yet, this statement has convinced me. If you plugged in different values to population density, social distancing, infection rates, etc... you'd get a different peak and general curve. Therefore, at the end of this curve, once we change another variable, like people going back to work, there will be a new curve with a new peak.

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Quick update on my family’s situation. Our youngest boy continues to have a mild fever in the low 99s. He seemed like he was on the upswing late-Thursday and all day Friday. His temp was normal the en

Just a quick update — the test for our older boy came back negative. Of course that just means that he didn’t have it on Friday when he got tested. Considering how much exposure he’s had to his little

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Our Governor did a state wide televised speech last night saying that if we all stay home the data shows we could reopen somethings on April 26 but then got very stern and said if people keep going out and not staying home we are going to be in this for much longer.  The data here in Colorado shows that we potentially hit peak this past weekend and never got as bad as the prediction models said.  Lets hope that is the case.  I am still struggling though to see how opening up will not start another outbreak, especially as several of our neighboring states have chosen not to quarantine.

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1 hour ago, kelley said:

Our Governor did a state wide televised speech last night saying that if we all stay home the data shows we could reopen somethings on April 26 but then got very stern and said if people keep going out and not staying home we are going to be in this for much longer.  The data here in Colorado shows that we potentially hit peak this past weekend and never got as bad as the prediction models said.  Lets hope that is the case.  I am still struggling though to see how opening up will not start another outbreak, especially as several of our neighboring states have chosen not to quarantine.

One way is testing, contact tracing and isolation. Or if this translates to in-vivo: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011?fbclid=IwAR3dhZilisID_FoQXK0TrZ7h-XH7yQwKgawSWTIcLlNeviMjZwElXE2JSKs

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, kelley said:

I am still struggling though to see how opening up will not start another outbreak, especially as several of our neighboring states have chosen not to quarantine.

 

Here in Minnesota, our governor has been very clear: a surge in COVID-19 cases is coming no matter what. The current stay-at-home order (which is set to expire at the end of the day Friday if he doesn’t extend it) is only meant to buy us the time needed to build up hospital and ICU capacities for when that surge does hit later this summer.

 

We’ve been doing pretty well here so far. We haven’t seen exponential growth in new cases over the past 3-4 weeks. Originally forecasts predicted around 2,000 Minnesotans would die of COVID-19 over the next few months. That number has been revised to around 650. That’s still a terrible number, but at least we have a chance of saving over 1,000 lives by taking action now.

 

The worst part is that the weather is starting to get nice. It was 70 and sunny here in the Twin Cities. Everyone’s been cooped up all winter and we’re ready to go outside and enjoy the beautiful weather.

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Here in Minnesota, our governor has been very clear: a surge in COVID-19 cases is coming no matter what. The current stay-at-home order (which is set to expire at the end of the day Friday if he doesn’t extend it) is only meant to buy us the time needed to build up hospital and ICU capacities for when that surge does hit later this summer.

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Modelling here is showing anywhere between 3000 and 15000 deaths over the next 18-24 months.  Scary numbers for sure, but they could have been a lot worse. 

 

Someone said the other day that this whole thing is like a group project in school-we all get dragged down by that one asshole who doesn't do their part of it.  Given the lack of consistency between different jurisdictions, there's no telling how this goes long term.  Consider that the other day I heard that 4 billion people are under some level of social distancing right now, which is all well and good, but what about the other 3B (not to mention the ones who are doing things half-assed right now)?  This is probably only round one...

 

1 hour ago, JFo said:

The worst part is that the weather is starting to get nice. It was 70 and sunny here in the Twin Cities. Everyone’s been cooped up all winter and we’re ready to go outside and enjoy the beautiful weather.

 

The warmer it gets here, the harder this is going to be to enforce...  They're ticketing people for ignoring the restrictions though, including trying to use closed city facilities.  Yes, it sucks, but if that's what it takes to get past this, then so be it. 

 

On the plus side, when I went to the grocery store last night, stocks seemed much better.  Not 100%, but fewer things that were completely unavailable.  Could be luck of the draw though.  People are generally in decent humour about the situation, and were just trying to get their stuff.  I'm good to not leave the house for another week I think. 

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I mentioned this in the beer thread, but I have new info. I try not to complain because my situation is infinitely better than so many others.

 

My primary mode of transport is my bicycle. Haven't had a car for years. About a month ago (maybe 5 weeks), my bike suddenly stopped working. The back wheel came lose, but was still bolted to the frame. It was unrideable. So I took it to REI where I got it to have them look. A couple days later, I got an email from the mechanic telling me that the rear axle broke, and he would need new parts to fix it because it has an internal hub derailleur. And then a couple days after that the lockdown came. REI closed. I got a message from the mechanic that while my bike was safe there, no repairs would be done, and I can't retrieve it.

I got a follow up today from him. He's been furloughed until July 15! The store will not be open until then at the earliest. He portrayed it as bad news for me, but I feel so badly for him. Just a more personal account of what so many are going through. I wrote back to say that his news for me was nothing compared to what he is going through.

He mentioned that there is a skeleton crew in the store now, so it's possible for me to retrieve my bike...which is still unrideable. I know that bike shops are defined as essential in the Bay Area, so I may be able to find a shop that can fix it, but it's not going to be easy if I can't ride to any. Still, I think I'm going to try and get my bike.

 

The main takeway for most of you here is to prepare for some major retailers to be closed for quite a while.

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@Carlucci that was the best meme I’ve seen!

 

Ed, I think even saying July 15th is aggressive. The virus doesn’t die in the summer like Trump wants us to believe. We won’t be returning to normal until the vaccine is out. I think face mask are going to be our new norm in public like they’ve been wearing in Asia for years. 

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I figured this was coming. 

 

https://www.abc27.com/news/local/governor-wolf-extends-school-closure-for-remainder-of-academic-year/

 

PA schools are officially closed for the academic school year. 

 

11 hours ago, kelley said:

@Carlucci that was the best meme I’ve seen!

 

Ed, I think even saying July 15th is aggressive. The virus doesn’t die in the summer like Trump wants us to believe. We won’t be returning to normal until the vaccine is out. I think face mask are going to be our new norm in public like they’ve been wearing in Asia for years. 

 

To be entirely fair, we don't know enough about the virus to state that definitively yet. Yes its true that the virus is present in warmer climates but the spread rate isn't as severe according to some studies out there. I'm not in any way downplaying the possibility that this thing could remain strong throughout the summer months because it absolutely could but even the experts cannot definitely say one way or the other what the expected results are going to be. 

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UK extension was inevitable really. The expected date for our peak keeps shifting. It was once thought it could be over the Easter period but we're now being told it is "at least" two weeks away. I doubt we should expect any ease on lockdowns here until sometime into May, but I'm still not sure how they might ease things given the government's lack of ability to really stay on top of things early on. It's cost us dearly. I guess the manufacturing sector could be able to start up again under strict guidelines, but it's all so risky whichever way they do it since we have not followed a testing and tracking model like Germany.  

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Latest here is that they're starting to brace people for the reality that this is going to last longer than anyone wants.  Now it's looking like maybe we start getting back to normal sometime this summer?  I'd expect them to confirm within the next couple of weeks that kids won't be back at school this  year, which already has my daughter upset.  She's in grade 6 this year, so it's the last year at this school.  She was looking forward to having a graduation, which probably won't happen now.  We'll figure something out once this is all relaxed, but it's still tough on her. 

 

Week one of remote school also went about as well as expected.  I've resigned myself to blocking out time through the day to sit and monitor at least one kid through school work, and making up the time around that.  So far the teachers aren't doing anything live, but have been posting work online.  See if things get more substantial next week. 

 

Also just read that Universal announced park closures until the end of May. 

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1 hour ago, ChrisBardon said:

Latest here is that they're starting to brace people for the reality that this is going to last longer than anyone wants.  Now it's looking like maybe we start getting back to normal sometime this summer?


Yeah, the fact that Ottawa is pretty much writing off Canada Day celebrations means we’re doing this to June at the bare minimum, I suspect.

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2 hours ago, King of All Cosmos said:

 

 

 

The best case scenario, Trump is diverting them to states that support him. Worst case(s), do we even want to know?

 

Like really, why? Ugh! Not conspiracy person, but the optics of the Fed doing something like this just aren't good. 

 

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12 hours ago, JTello said:

 

 

The best case scenario, Trump is diverting them to states that support him. Worst case(s), do we even want to know?

 

Like really, why? Ugh! Not conspiracy person, but the optics of the Fed doing something like this just aren't good. 

 

 

And you don't even have to read between the lines when he says things like governors asking for federal assistance need to 'treat us well' and 'it's a two way street.' - kiss the king's ring to get help.

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Interesting story at ArsTechnica about research looking at the response to the 1918 Flu Pandemic and the effect of different reaction times on the economy. I heard this story on NPR a few days ago, but I only got the very tail end.

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/lockdowns-flatten-the-economic-curve-too/

 

"Cities that responded faster and more aggressively to the pandemic had better growth in employment and manufacturing output compared to cities with weaker responses. On average, cities that responded eight days earlier had four percent higher employment after the pandemic compared to cities that responded later. And cities that kept their measures in place for an extra six weeks or so had, on average, six percent higher employment afterward."

 

As noted in the article, the data isn't fully conclusive, there is uncertainty, but surely given the life-saving benefit of acting quickly, if it also only tends to be economically beneficial too, then it should become standard procedure at times like these.

EDIT: There will surely be tons of research on this topic based on the reactions to our current pandemic. It will likely be quite granular, and hopefully can give us a clearer picture of how and when to respond.

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2 hours ago, rustyjaw said:

 

And you don't even have to read between the lines when he says things like governors asking for federal assistance need to 'treat us well' and 'it's a two way street.' - kiss the king's ring to get help.

Our democrat governor asked Trump for ventilators, we got denied.  Our republican senator who is up for re-election this fall asked for them and he got 100.  Trump is a stain on humanity.

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