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Summer Movie Challenge 2022


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Here is our scoreboard for this year




The /Filmcast Summer Movie Challenge is starting up again this year. While I don't watch many movies anymore, and have been to a theater twice in the last 2 years, I think it would still be fun to do this again this year if there is any interest.


For those that have not participated before, the Summer Movie Wager / Summer Movie Challenge is a contest started by The Totally Rad Show and carried on by the /Filmcast to see who can predict the top movies at the summer box office in the US. You create a list of 10 movies based on what position you think they will end up at (you are not guessing the actual $). You earn points relative to how close your actual guess was to where it actually eneded up. Bonus points are awarded for correctly guessing the #1 and #10 movies. You also get 3 dark horse picks, and if any of those end up anywhere in the top 10, you earn a single point.


Even if you don't watch a lot of movies, it can still be fun to guess what movies will be the most popular and to watch the movies movie around the top 10 which can either earn or cost you points. Similar to an Oscar ballot, you can just randomly pick some movies and make a list in minutes, or do actual research and make spreadsheets (this is me) to approach it in a bit more calculated way. We will have an LCVG leaderboard to compare our own scores, but you can also compare yourself to the Global Leaderboard, and the /Filmcast leaderboard.


If you're interested in participating start by creating a list at https://thesummermoviewager.com/playalong.php

If you've created a list before, DO NOT log in at the top of the page (this is quite counterintuitive), simply scroll down and create your list. There will be an opportunity to tie it to your username below.


Once you've created a list, reply to this thread with your username so that I can add you to the LCVG leaderboard.


The deadline to qualify for the Global leaderboard is May 4, at Midnight PST. The first movie as part of the "Summer" releases is Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness which opens on May 6.


Interest in this has waned that past few years we've done it, and I suspect there might not be much interest this year, but I hope we are able to get a few people (and maybe a few new people) who are interested.

You can listen to the /Filmcast episode where they reveal their lists below:


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  • 1 month later...


Jurassic World isn’t going to catch Top Gun. Jub Jub is the only one that even has a chance at getting the top movie right (with Thor). When does that happen?


Who saw that coming two months ago? Everyone on the FilmCast laughed at Germain for putting Top Gun at 3 (myself included). 

Lightyear bombing isn’t that much of a surprise. I probably would have put it lower on my list, except there weren’t any more “big” movies left. 

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Here is where things are at right now. I think the top 5 movies are most likely what they are now, but the order is still to be decided. Will Thor hit #2 or settle for 3? Could Minions pass Jurassic World?

The bottom 5 is probably where things get interesting now as we see what smaller movies can make it on the list. I wouldn’t be surprised if something g like Nope even passed Lightyear. 

The chart below gives a good ideas of the top movie’s histories. Top Gun just keeps trucking along. 



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Here is my annual "Not just posting this now because I'm in the lead before my eventual fall" score update. I don't think there is anything else coming out that could crack this list.


There is still some room for movement in the top 5, but probably not. Minions is narrowing the gap to Jurassic, but it probably won't be enough. Thor is pretty much locked at 5 I think.


Bottom 5 though.... still lots to play for. Bullet Train just opened this weekend and is trending higher than Black Phone, so I expect it to crack the top 10. DC League of Super Pets is trending ahead of Crawdads and is on a similar pace to Black Phone, so I'm pretty sure my 13 points for Crawdads are in danger.


Nope is trending behind Lightyear, but Lightyear did not have a long tail at all, so if Nope has some legs like Elvis, it could catch it. Some of these positions could be all about the timing of the last day that the BO numbers count.

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