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If Xbox 2 beats PS3 to the market, so what?


foogledricks
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Microsoft, Nintendo, and fans have talked up Sony's headstart as the major reason the PS2 has dominated the console market this generation. I have always considered this excuse to be a load of crap. But I've never heard anyone else say this. So does anyone else concur with me here?

 

I do hope that the next generation console race is a bit more market balanced (Xbox 33%, PS 33%, Gamecube 33%). But lets be real. The Playstation brand has got the eyes and ears of the casual market, and even a headstart by Microsoft won't change that.

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I see where you're coming from but the year head start means a lot more than just the 5 to 10 million lead Sony had on the competition right out of the gate. Most importantly is the consumer mindshare a year on the market brings. People saw a distinct difference between PS2 and the previous consoles (PSone, N64). When Xbox & Gamecube finally hit shelves your average shopper didn't see as obvious an advantage. People saw the PS2 as THE next gen console. The import of mindshare cannot be denied.

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Sony may very well want to follow MS for the next generation. I suspect they don't really like being technologically inferior to the Xbox...at the very least, they probably don't want to go another generation in that position, and would love to see MS tip their hand first, and then solidify the specs on the PS3 and get it on the market.

 

I realize that scenario is a little far-fetched because hardware specs are nailed down well in advance, but I think it's feasible to boost the specifications in certain areas without a re-design.

 

And as has been pointed out, Sony doesn't have a lot to loose. They have the mindshare, they continue to sell loads of PS2s, they probably feel like they can wait out MS and then respond.

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I know the year head start does sound like a BS excuse, but it really is a valid one. The Sega DC was the first next gen console to come out on the market, but Sony kept hyping the PS2. Consumers decided to wait a year(which killed the DC), and sure enough, the hype for the PS2 was through the roof. Add to that the initail shortage of the consoles and you had everyone and their mothers standing in line trying to be lucky enough to purchase one at $299.

 

Consumers were hungry for a next gen console in 2000 and Sony made everyone believe that they were the only ones who could deliver. By the time MS and Nintendo came out a year later, PS2 was just hitting it's stride with some great game offerings. Let's not forget being backwards compatible was also another huge plus.

 

PS1 was a huge success. It came out of nowhere and just dominated the console industry. With so many great games in it's library, consumers couldn't wait to see what Sony had in store for them next. Add to that that no one knew anything about the XBOX and people were kinda feeling burned from Nintendo with the N64 and the PS2 was just flying high.

 

This next gen we will see a true console war. Each of the 3 consoles will most likely launch very close to one another. It will be really interesting to see who comes out on top.

 

I will say though, after hearing about many problems with defective first generation XBOX's and PS2s, I think the only console I'll buy at launch is the next Nintendo. Nintendo puts a one year warranty on their products, which makes me feel better about adopting early to it. I think I'll wait on the PS3 and XBOX 2 and make sure that all the bugs are worked out.

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There are more factors for x-box 2's success then if it comes out a year early.

 

1)Will Halo 2 be this huge game we all hope it to be on the current x-box. If it is a huge hit and sells a ton of x-box's, then if they have a Halo 3 when X-box 2 launch's it will help a bundle.

 

2)Can Microsoft improve and make x-box live bigger and better going into the next generation. Finally get all this other stuff we were promised. It will be very intresting to see where live heads. More people have broadband year after year. its only going to get bigger.

 

3)EA online support(rumored to finally be coming at E3). Will they finally come to a agreement? Its a very big deal out there

 

 

Those are only a few , but there are many more. Microsoft just needs to take there time and not rush into things or sony will run away again

 

capt

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Perhaps for the same reason that the DC didn't do too well, the Xbox will struggle. Like was said, people were compelled to wait out their current investments in their PS1 and N64 an extra year (ignoring the DC.)

 

If XBox 2 comes out the same time as the PS3, that will be early for most Xbox 1 investors. If it comes out a year before, that will be WAY early for Xbox investors. Sure, we enthusiasts will get it right away, but the mainstream?

 

I think it will hurt Xbox 2 if it comes out too early. They'll lose launch steam, and the technical advantage. I imagine that the Microsoft marketing folks understand this.

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Having a big-time killer ap game will help.

I don't care what anyone says - Sony got a huge lead because of GTA III being only available on the PS2.

 

Yep, Sony hurt Sega by hyping up the PS2 over the DC,but Sega was in trouble way before that. And the PS2 launch was god-awful.

 

IF done right - this next console war could easily be the closest one ever.

We shall see...

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I suspect they don't really like being technologically inferior to the Xbox...at the very least, they probably don't want to go another generation in that position, and would love to see MS tip their hand first, and then solidify the specs on the PS3 and get it on the market.

 

I realize that scenario is a little far-fetched because hardware specs are nailed down well in advance, but I think it's feasible to boost the specifications in certain areas without a re-design

 

 

Another thing to keep in mind is that Sony has always launched its systems in Japan first with a North American launch some six to eight months later. This would give MS an opportunity to tweak the X2 hardware and possibly launch early in the North American market. Easier said then done but I think it can work in the favor of MS.

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Anyone think they'd launch without a Halo title? With Halo 2 coming out in the Fall, that would give them only a year to complete before a Winter 2005 release date.

 

Y'know, the same thought crossed my mind last night. Halo 2 being released this Fall is a big hint, to me, that Xbox 2 won't be out till 2006 instead of 2005 as many people, including me, suspected.

 

Why? Because if Halo 2 sells a huge amount of Xboxes & XBox Live, which is what Microsoft wants, announcing a new platform for launch the next year would be a real turn off for the mainstream market - "what?? This machine I bought's only good for a year?? That sucks!!!". That make sense?

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