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Predictions for the Next Five Years!


foogledricks
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In the next five years:

 

Apple will dive into consumer electronics

Say hello to an all white HD-DVD player with an Ipod slot.

 

Microsoft will release Harddrive-based Xboy

Purchase games on Xblive and transfer them to your Xboy.

Tivo will go out of Business

Video on demand will make 3rd Party DVRs obsolete.

 

EA will release their own game console

The EA library can sustain a console on its own, and developers will follow the leader. They already have an online infrastructure which puts them ahead of Sony and Nintendo.

 

CDs will Die

Why buy CDs when you can download songs and play them anywhere?

 

Online Gaming Will Cease to be a Feature

Like rumble packs and analog sticks, online gaming will be an element of gaming we all take for granted, rather than talk up to friends.

 

The 35mm film industry will die

When digital cameras are easy enough for Grandma, film is dead. 50% of all cameras sold in the U.S. will be digital in five years.

HD Video on Demand will challenge (HD) DVD Market

Why buy CDs when you can download songs and play them anywhere? Why buy DVDs when you can download movies and play them anywhere?

 

Hilary Clinton will be the Next President

For better or worse

 

LCVG will ban me

For having an avatar of Jason and Joel having sex doggy style.

 

Eagles Still Superbowl Losers - (exile)

Freddie Mitchell will still be blaming TO for his ineptitude and congratulating his hands for another mediocre performance.

 

War Part 2 of 3 - (exile)

Troops will stop by Iran before moving on to North Korea and then finally home.

 

If all of these come true, you all owe me a copy of Halo 4.

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The Eagles will still not have won a Superbowl and if they keep it up Freddie Mitchell will still be blaming TO for his ineptitude and congratulating his hands for another mediocre performance. The latest article on espn is hilarious. :D

 

Another War will break out. Nothing big though. Predicting Iran at the moment.

 

The HD DVD/Blu Ray format war will still be going on.

 

To take your Xboy comment futher, I predict it will be a cell phone too.

 

All new personal PC's will be 64 bit whether it be intel or amd.

 

Dell will be selling AMD 64's instead of Intel chips.

 

And since this is a gaming site, Duke Nukem Forever will still be vaporware.

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Think again.

 

Daniel

 

Film will never be completely dead, just look at 8-tracks, LPs, and Laser discs. Rather, film's market share will have degraded so sharply, with no possibility of recovery, that it will be on a market respirator. It will take 15 years before it is on the fringe like LPs. So "Dead" in the context of this thread, means on a downhill spiral with no chance of recovery. The milestone that I anticipate for five years from now will be that 50% of all cameras sold in the U.S. will be digital.

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Film will never be completely dead, just look at 8-tracks, LPs, and Laser discs. Rather, film's market share will have degraded so sharply, with no possibility of recovery, that it will be on a market respirator. It will take 15 years before it is on the fringe like LPs. So "Dead" in the context of this thread, means on a downhill spiral with no chance of recovery. The milestone that I anticipate for five years from now will be that 50% of all cameras sold in the U.S. will be digital.

 

I?m sorry. You know when I first read the prediction it seemed to me like an outright vision of 35mm film full stop, I think perhaps because you said ?industry.? It?s a slightly bigger issue than this if we want to extend the outlook into motion picture production of course, so rewording your prediction as a view of the 35mm consumer film industry seems more fitting.

 

You're examining the future of market share on a consumer basis, not professional. In the consumer market your prediction is absolutely true, in fact Kodak already scaled down R&D on all their consumer 35mm cameras and film stocks. What is available right now to the typical consumer wanting something for their holiday snaps (APS, their gimmicky ?HD? stocks and so on) is essentially it as far as such consumer products will go, so we wont be seeing any new developments for consumers again with 35mm film. Five years is a fair estimate to gauge when the majority of people will be completely content with digital cameras, so yes, I?m close to pre-ordering Halo 4 for you.

 

They?ll continue to produce 35mm stocks, and medium format stocks under the ?Professional? badge however. Kodak are still making some strides with the Pro stocks? 35mm for even general consumers may well ultimately remain available just for those who care for it like vinyl as you say, but the fact of the matter is those who do continue to care for film will most likely be amateur and professional SLR equipped photographers who use the ever continuing Pro stocks anyway so the typical consumer stocks in your local pharmacy could well die for good in five to eight years.

 

It?s funny how with film what is clear for the consumer world is not so straightforward for the professional world, both in stills photography and motion picture film. In movies, I don?t foresee 35mm losing any sense of priority for at least another decade, and a further five to ten years still for HD to become the motion picture standard and start to actually replace film within the studio system. That will happen eventually, but it?s a good way off for a variety of reasons, as is digital projection in cinemas. Indeed even last year, Kodak?s sales of motion picture film were their highest on record so as an actual manufacturing industry of varying film emulsions it's long from dying.

 

 

 

 

CDs will Die

Why buy CDs when you can download songs and play them anywhere?

 

Now this one, I?m not so sure on. In five years? I know you don?t mean die for good, but I?d double that estimate if even estimate it happening at all. I do think people like a physical product in their hand and on their shelves, and I do think the majority of people like going out and buying things.

 

In a way this ties somewhat with the future of consumer photography as I think the main thing holding it back a few years for everyone is that a lot of people want good high quality prints in their hand and extremely high resolution cameras and printers are so far the only way to achieve that digitally, which currently comes at a cost (which are ever decreasing thus aiding your consumer photography predictions nicely).

 

We may find a happy medium in music, with download and CD sales both doing well in the next five years. Who knows? Pigs may then fly and we may actually have a successful disc based multi channel progression from CD!

 

 

Apple will dive into consumer electronics

Say hello to an all white HD-DVD player with an Ipod slot.

 

This would not shock me at all? Apple seems to be getting a little chummy with Sony these days when the subject of HD arises however, so maybe Blu Ray player instead perhaps. :)

 

Daniel

 

PS: Does anyone want to dare to be the first to say Nintendo will cease playing their part in non handheld videogame hardware in five years? I haven?t the guts (as the very prospect would make me weep).

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PS: Does anyone want to dare to be the first to say Nintendo will cease playing their part in non handheld videogame hardware in five years? I haven?t the guts (as the very prospect would make me weep).

I don't have high hopes for the Big N but even I wouldn't have the guts to say they will be out of the non-handheld videogame hardware market. It's certainly possible though.

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Now this one, I?m not so sure on. In five years? I know you don?t mean die for good, but I?d double that estimate if even estimate it happening at all. I do think people like a physical product in their hand and on their shelves, and I do think the majority of people like going out and buying things.

 

Again I say, I'm not paying for content downloads. I want a physical copy of something, dammit, if I am paying $10+... that won't be lost if I lose a HDD or something. Right now digital music downloads have

1) slightly inferior sound quality

and

2) Cost more than buying the CD

 

I would rather buy the CD and make my own MP3s out of it. Ditto for buying PC games, console games, etc. The whole push to digital downloads of movies are the same way. They will inevitably put some copyright protection and/or DRM bull**** on the downloads. Offer me downloads without lame copyright DRM and cheaper than the physical stuff, that I can re-download for no charge if I lose a HDD or something, and I'm in. Otherwise, no. Plus the downloads are inferior quality to the physical media version!

 

 

Online Gaming Will Cease to be a Feature

 

Many games don't need online. An appropriate edit would be

Multiplayer party games and FPS games

 

Who needs multiplayer Devil May Cry? Multiplayer Sonic the Hedgehog? Etc.

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You're examining the future of market share on a consumer basis, not professional.

Sure, the consumer market is the most obvious. But a huge chunk of the professional market is already following suit. Magazines and newspapers use digital photography extensively. And any wedding I've gone to recently reveals the advent of SLR digital cameras well in use by professionals. And recently I read an article about a custom-built camera that can capture giga-pixel images - resolutions that even large format film cannot achieve. I think the professional market is on its way as well. Perhaps not as quickly as the trendy consumer market... but it is happening very quickly.

 

I do think the majority of people like going out and buying things.

No doubt that people are set in their ways, but those ways will die with them. I believe that a child that grows up with infinite access to music, movies, games, photos, and tv shows in an on-demand way at the tip of their fingers, will prefer that to sorting through their grandparents dusty stacks of scratched plastic discs of yesteryear. This is the way of things. The music is louder than we remember. The kids are disrespectful. The country is going to hell... not like the good old days when boxing was legal, Nintendo made consoles, media was sold in stores, and people (gasp) used wads of paper to wipe their ass.

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Predictions (possibly wild and controversial ;) )

 

Nintendo will make its last home console.

I really think this next one will be it, unless Nintendo makes drastic changes in the way it treats third parties and consumers. Nintendo first party games can't sustain a platform by themselves anymore since third parties are now producing the best games.

 

Western developers continue to surpass their Japanese counterparts

It seems that more and more of the best games are now being made in America and Europe, and I expect this to continue and intensify.

 

The Xbox 2 launches to frenzied success

I predict that the Xbox 2 will have a great launch as Microsoft continues to win over more and more gamers. However, Sony will implement the same dirty tactics that were used against the Dreamcast. Microsoft will not be displaced as easily as Sega was, and things will get nasty.

 

EA will not make a console

EA will continue to enjoy its status as the largest publisher. Creating a new console is a shareholder value destroying proposition and there's no reason for EA to pursue it.

 

The US and/or Israel will pwn somewhere between one and three countries

Iran and North Korea seem to be getting pretty uppity, and there's no telling who else might step out of line. However, any future wars will not be fought with silly strategies as the Iraq war has been. These wars will be about wreaking untold destruction and breaking things. No reconstruction and occupation, just good old American ass kicking.

 

The economy will continue to improve, with the DJIA hitting 13,000-14,000

The continued tax cuts will spur the economy along, as will taking the first steps to destroy the Ponzi scheme known as social security. Due to investment of ex social security taxes, the cost of capital for businesses is dramatically lowered and stock prices continue to soar.

 

The backlash against political correctness continues and intensifies

Misguided programs such as welfare, aa, etc. are reformed as they get closer and closer to outright elimination. The 'old media' continues to lose out against the internet and radio. Parents, sick of the degeneration of today's youth, may actually start disciplining their kids again. America continues to move back towards the rugged individualism that made it so great in the first place.

 

The Astros will stop teasing me.....

by not making it to the playoffs anymore. It seems that all the players I used to watch as a kid are getting pretty old. It's a shame Bagwell and Biggio probably won't win a world series. They're not just great players, they're great people too. I met them early in their careers and I've got a ball signed by Bagwell, Biggio, Caminit, and Steve Finley.

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In 5 years we'll all be playing our Phantom consoles and Infinium Labs will be the new Bungie.

 

I'll put money on that one. :D

 

Also, gentleman please keep in mind that political discussions are not allowed on LCVG. I've seen a few predictions hinting at or outright dealing with political topics and I'd like to make sure things don't go off tangent into a political debate. Please keep that in mind for any future postings. Thanks.

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And recently I read an article about a custom-built camera that can capture giga-pixel images - resolutions that even large format film cannot achieve. I think the professional market is on its way as well. Perhaps not as quickly as the trendy consumer market... but it is happening very quickly.

 

Certainly. Wildlife photography and the majority of magazine photography is moving more in favour of digital SLRs... In fashion, medium format is still the most popular option as it is for most photography displays in galleries. Do remember resolution is only one factor in what a photographer wants when moving to digital, and it isn't necessarily the most important one.

 

No doubt that people are set in their ways, but those ways will die with them. I believe that a child that grows up with infinite access to music, movies, games, photos, and TV shows in an on-demand way at the tip of their fingers, will prefer that to sorting through their grandparents dusty stacks of scratched plastic discs of yesteryear. This is the way of things. The music is louder than we remember. The kids are disrespectful. The country is going to hell... not like the good old days when boxing was legal, Nintendo made consoles, media was sold in stores, and people (gasp) used wads of paper to wipe their ass.

 

I still can't side with you on the CD debate in predicting this genuinely happening in five years. Will it be the future? Sad truth is yes I am sure it will, but it's really a reality for a generation of kids who've not actually been born yet. As you say, they'll be trawling though boxes of weird items known as books and CDs in a world where all media is beamed into their heads via the HyperSplanknick Node device (developed by Atari).

 

Your country is going to hell though, as is mine, as is.... well, we'll all end up in the big old furnace frankly... Unless the future ends up like Back to the Future 2, which made its predictions from 2015 so I'm close to putting money on Mattel taking a patent on hover boards in the next five years for them to go into production by 2012. 80s themed cafes would be welcome too.

 

 

Internet speeds in five years interests me. I'm curious what progression we may see there... Does anyone have any predictions on this subject? I'm sure either way we in the UK will be stuck on 512k come 2010 however.

 

Daniel

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Internet speeds in five years interests me. I'm curious what progression we may see there... Does anyone have any predictions on this subject? I'm sure either way we in the UK will be stuck on 512k come 2010 however.

Well Verizon is offering 15mb down right now with 4mb up. In 5 years, I'd say that 30 mb down would be a safe assumption. Then again it might max out at 15 where Verizon is now.

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Do you want my world predictions for before or after a pandemic flu comes screaming out of China and kills 40% of the world's population?

 

The big surprise will be that the PS2 will still outsell the XBox and GC after it happens. Although all of us FPS fans should get an up close and personal use for our l33t skillz :thud

 

Hehe.

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Although all of us FPS fans should get an up close and personal use for our l33t skillz

 

:l33t

 

LCVG will ban me

For having an avatar of Jason and Joel having sex doggy style.

 

Nope. We find the avatar to funny to ever do such a thing.

 

EA will release their own game console

 

I don't think it will ever happen but I shudder to think of what they could do. :thud

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