Carlucci Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Looks like my turn. I live in Cypress, in the northwest corner of Harris County, TX. Right now, a couple of the projections for Rita's path have her entering Texas southwest of Galveston, then taking a decidedly northern track. That track would put the eye within 25-50 miles from my house, even though I'm more than 100 miles inland. I'm in the 77433 zip code. I'm not terribly worried about flooding, but I am worried about the wind and possible spawned tornadoes. Can somebody please help me separate the media hype from the facts? I'll be swamped most of the day in Disaster Recovery preparations for work. Carlos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrJames Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 This is a very tough position to be in. Even more so for you since you have a family. The bad news is that you will probably be dealing with the NE quad of the storm. Estimates call for Rita to intensify to a Cat 5 in the next day or so but some weakening is expected before landfall. Recon should verify this later today. Expect at least a Cat 3 at landfall. A few maps should give you an idea of what to expect. These should update automatically. Forcast models Wind Field Landfall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whooter Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 My only suggestion is don't watch CNN for your info. The next time they get a clue, it will be the first. Stay dry, Carlos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
secretvampire Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Bahhhhh. I'm in Austin and it looks like we are going to get it directly. It will only be a tropical storm by the time it gets here with 70mph winds, but I can pretty much say so long to the Austin City Limits Festival I am so excited about for this weekend. Arrrrrgh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrJames Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Latest recon: 908 mb 160-165mph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlucci Posted September 21, 2005 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 On the 3rd map James linked, if you draw a line from right side of the "H" in Houston, and another from the middle of the "K" in Kingwood, my house lies approx. where those two line intersect. So would you stay? Carlos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyjaw Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Latest recon: 908 mb 160-165mph Category 5. I would seriously consider leaving at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillho Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 I'd have to agree. That's a pretty big powerful storm. Think of this. What's the worse that could happen if you leave, as opposed to what's the worse that could happen if you stay. Items are replaceable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
secretvampire Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 So would you stay? Nope. I moved from the West University area in Febrary up here to Austin. If I were still there, I would be leaving right now. My parents lived in Clear Lake up until January, there's been talk a 20-foot storm surge could actually reach parts of Clear Lake and Seabrook so it's a good thing they've moved on too. I'd be sad to see my childhood home destroyed though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whooter Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Stop yammering at us, and get the hell out of Dodge, young man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyjaw Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Stop yammering at us, and get the hell out of Dodge, young man! Just head for Kelly's place, tell him I said you and your family could stay there. Oh, bring some Zima. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry the Clown Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Think of this. What's the worse that could happen if you leave, as opposed to what's the worse that could happen if you stay. Items are replaceable. I must agree. Definitely get yourself some place safe, Carlos. Daniel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyN Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Carlos Id get out of there, so you know everyone will be safe. Pack up whatever is necessary into your car(s) and go. Too many people these days stay and it causes more problems then anything. capt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romier S Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Definitely get yourself and your family to safety Carlos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob B Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 GET YOUR ASS TO MARS as it were Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlucci Posted September 21, 2005 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 As of now it looks like we're staying. I really don't want to, because it's pretty scary. But the alternative is to go north to where a large amount of flooding is likely to occur. And we're going to have my Ma and Pa, and my kid sis to care for. More than 1 million people from much farther south are already in transit, so traffic is already gridlocked. I think we're in for a scary night and then a few days with no power. I saw a slide that had my area with up to 78 mile winds. There are no really large trees in the area so we're safe there. I'll make a final decision tonight after a few more rounds of projections. Your prayers will be greatly appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robot Monkey Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillho Posted September 21, 2005 Report Share Posted September 21, 2005 My buddy lives in Pennsacola, hit many times over the last year. He left each time. Actually he had to let his wife leave with the family as he had to fly his plane away from the naval base. He didn't regret leaving each time. Its the safest course of action. Trees aren't always the real big issue. He said many of the houses last year lost their roofs due to the pressure build up and the wind. Watch yourself man, These are the most powerful naturally occuring events. I'm sorry if I sound like I'm trying to scare ya, but I am, this is a pretty damn big storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrJames Posted September 22, 2005 Report Share Posted September 22, 2005 Latest recon finds pressure down to 898 mb... 668WTNT63 KNHC 212351 TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD... DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED... WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB. FORECASTER STEWART Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
secretvampire Posted September 22, 2005 Report Share Posted September 22, 2005 I think we're in for a scary night and then a few days with no power. I saw a slide that had my area with up to 78 mile winds. There are no really large trees in the area so we're safe there. Ah...that's not too bad at all if it is true, you must be pretty far north. Nevertheless, I'll keep my fingers crossed for you. They are projecting 65mph or so tops in Austin, but I also think we'll be on the west side of the storm where it won't be as bad. The biggest threat here will probably be tornadoes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHiL Posted September 22, 2005 Report Share Posted September 22, 2005 Good Luck Carlos.. Hope Your heading to saftey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyjaw Posted September 22, 2005 Report Share Posted September 22, 2005 BTW, Carlos...nice thread title Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Sheets Posted September 22, 2005 Report Share Posted September 22, 2005 As of now it looks like we're staying. I really don't want to' date=' because it's pretty scary. But the alternative is to go north to where a large amount of flooding is likely to occur. And we're going to have my Ma and Pa, and my kid sis to care for. More than 1 million people from much farther south are already in transit, so traffic is already gridlocked. I think we're in for a scary night and then a few days with no power. I saw a slide that had my area with up to 78 mile winds. There are no really large trees in the area so we're safe there.[/quote'] Sounds similar to the situation with my mom and sister and their families, as they live in northwest Houston and last time I e-mailed them they were going to ride it out. I've been trying to call them to get more details but the phones seem to be jammed, but it wouldn't surprise me if they decided to head out for San Angelo, where we have more relatives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrJames Posted September 22, 2005 Report Share Posted September 22, 2005 While I understand you wanting to stay and ride it out I'm not so sure it would be the best thing to do right now. 11PM update is out and the pressure is down to 897 mb with sustained winds of 175, gusts to 215mph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillho Posted September 22, 2005 Report Share Posted September 22, 2005 Good Luck Carlos! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.