Jump to content
LCVG

Lovely Rita, Hurricane.... I Don't Like Ike Either! Give me a Harvey Rainbanger!


Carlucci
 Share

Recommended Posts

Looks like my turn.

 

I live in Cypress, in the northwest corner of Harris County, TX. Right now, a couple of the projections for Rita's path have her entering Texas southwest of Galveston, then taking a decidedly northern track.

 

That track would put the eye within 25-50 miles from my house, even though I'm more than 100 miles inland. I'm in the 77433 zip code.

 

I'm not terribly worried about flooding, but I am worried about the wind and possible spawned tornadoes.

 

Can somebody please help me separate the media hype from the facts? I'll be swamped most of the day in Disaster Recovery preparations for work.

 

Carlos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a very tough position to be in. Even more so for you since you have a family. The bad news is that you will probably be dealing with the NE quad of the storm.

 

Estimates call for Rita to intensify to a Cat 5 in the next day or so but some weakening is expected before landfall. Recon should verify this later today. Expect at least a Cat 3 at landfall.

 

A few maps should give you an idea of what to expect. These should update automatically.

 

Forcast models

storm_18.gif

 

Wind Field

windfield.gif

 

Landfall

AL182005ltsz.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So would you stay?

 

Nope. I moved from the West University area in Febrary up here to Austin. If I were still there, I would be leaving right now. My parents lived in Clear Lake up until January, there's been talk a 20-foot storm surge could actually reach parts of Clear Lake and Seabrook so it's a good thing they've moved on too. I'd be sad to see my childhood home destroyed though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of now it looks like we're staying. I really don't want to, because it's pretty scary. But the alternative is to go north to where a large amount of flooding is likely to occur. And we're going to have my Ma and Pa, and my kid sis to care for.

 

More than 1 million people from much farther south are already in transit, so traffic is already gridlocked.

 

I think we're in for a scary night and then a few days with no power. I saw a slide that had my area with up to 78 mile winds. There are no really large trees in the area so we're safe there.

 

I'll make a final decision tonight after a few more rounds of projections.

 

Your prayers will be greatly appreciated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My buddy lives in Pennsacola, hit many times over the last year. He left each time. Actually he had to let his wife leave with the family as he had to fly his plane away from the naval base. He didn't regret leaving each time. Its the safest course of action. Trees aren't always the real big issue. He said many of the houses last year lost their roofs due to the pressure build up and the wind. Watch yourself man, These are the most powerful naturally occuring events. I'm sorry if I sound like I'm trying to scare ya, but I am, this is a pretty damn big storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest recon finds pressure down to 898 mb...

 

668

WTNT63 KNHC 212351

TCUAT3

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

 

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

 

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS

FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT

MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY

DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN

LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...

WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF

PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND

INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

 

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB

AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we're in for a scary night and then a few days with no power. I saw a slide that had my area with up to 78 mile winds. There are no really large trees in the area so we're safe there.

 

Ah...that's not too bad at all if it is true, you must be pretty far north. Nevertheless, I'll keep my fingers crossed for you. They are projecting 65mph or so tops in Austin, but I also think we'll be on the west side of the storm where it won't be as bad. The biggest threat here will probably be tornadoes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of now it looks like we're staying. I really don't want to' date=' because it's pretty scary. But the alternative is to go north to where a large amount of flooding is likely to occur. And we're going to have my Ma and Pa, and my kid sis to care for.

 

More than 1 million people from much farther south are already in transit, so traffic is already gridlocked.

 

I think we're in for a scary night and then a few days with no power. I saw a slide that had my area with up to 78 mile winds. There are no really large trees in the area so we're safe there.[/quote']

 

Sounds similar to the situation with my mom and sister and their families, as they live in northwest Houston and last time I e-mailed them they were going to ride it out. I've been trying to call them to get more details but the phones seem to be jammed, but it wouldn't surprise me if they decided to head out for San Angelo, where we have more relatives.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • kelley changed the title to Lovely Rita, Hurricane.... I Don't Like Ike Either! Give me a Harvey Rainbanger!

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...